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Sep 24

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Don’t Forget to Set Your Predictions

As you begin the process of evaluation, a quick refresher of high school science can be a useful guide.  No, we do not need to remember how to balance a chemical reaction or how to dissect a frog but we need to recall the basic steps to the scientific method.  The process can often be forgotten in the early stages as organizations jump directly into designing a test and analyzing the data. 

 1.       Formulate a question

 2.       Hypothesis

 3.       Prediction

 4.       Test

 5.       Analysis

The step most often skipped is predictions.  After deciding to conduct an internal evaluation, organizations will at times jump to the end and see what the data reveals.  The problem here is if you do not set predictions, you do not know how you are doing compared to your aspirations.

Several years ago I was asked to review the outcomes of a non-profit’s department.  We had a discussions on our goals but never set quantitative targets or predication for what we aspired to see.  At that time, I quickly began analyzing any data I could get my hands on.  When it came time to report my initial findings, there were disagreements in the analysis.  The issue was not in the math or the numbers but the subjective analysis around the idea of success.  By not having concrete quantitative aspirations before the evaluation began, individuals evaluated the numbers differently at the end.  Additionally, once you have data, it is too late to set your targets because you are bias to make the data fit the goals.

While these 5 steps are a very basic guide to your evaluation, they will help insure you stay on a successful path and avoid some potential challenges later in your evaluation.

Permanent link to this article: http://evaluatingeffectiveness.com/dont-forget-to-set-your-predictions/